Dealing with Black Swan Events - Don't Predict just Plan !

Many people talk about black Swan events. These are unexpected events which we haven't prepared for and will have a huge effect on our organisation.

After the event has taken place people try and argue that it could have been predicted and we could have done something.

But could we?

Was the 2001 twin towers event a black Swan event. Yes from our point of view but not from the point of view of the terrorists involved.

We cannot predict everything but we can plan for generalised high impact events. We need to react.

We need to be flexible and fleet footed and not freeze in the moment.

We need to set up an emergency planning team and ask ourselves:

• How flexible are we in terms of thinking and planning?

• Do we have a shadow event in our risk register that we can plan for?

• This shadow event can be made a proxy for a black Swan event

• Make sure your event is a proxy for such an event it doesn't need a specific title but does need specific outcomes.

PEST and SWOT tools can help in this analysis!

Have you undertaken any of these techniques recently as part of your strategic planning?

If not why not?

Remember there will always be an unexpected event but if a robust plan exists for an unexpected shadow event then your organisation has a better chance of surviving it.

Black Swan Events cannot always be predicted but the reaction to a close shadow event can be!

Get ready for that !